Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x2374…a426 sports 834 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,931 (+2%) realized +$3,510 · open −$579
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%349W / 479L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$3,407est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,522
other 9% +$462
crypto 2% −$594
politics 1% −$143
world 0% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +2.7% -7.1% 40% 39% -4.6%
≤30d 414 -3.9% -13.0% 41% 39% -11.7%
≤90d 803 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 41% -10.2%
all 828 -3.0% -12.2% 42% 41% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 41% -10.2%
10% -20.6% 40% -18.8%
15% -28.3% 39% -26.6%
20% -35.3% 36% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$181 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$4,172
Realized+$3,510
Unrealized−$579
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses349 / 479
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3,407
Open positions6
Markets (closed)828 / 834
History coverage102d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 828 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,065 $1,058 −$7 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,000 $878 −$122 (-12%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Sebastian Ofner 32¢ 40¢ $500 $633 +$133 (+27%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $181 $327 +$146 (+81%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Raphael Perot 51¢ 14¢ $1,006 $288 −$718 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 443 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $308 −$300 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $493 +$562 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $407 +$569 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $587 +$430 +73%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $243 +$166 +68%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $406 +$393 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $406 −$400 -98%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $357 −$350 -98%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $785 +$940 +120%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $355 −$350 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $337 −$330 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $408 −$400 -98%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $646 +$865 +134%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $608 +$423 +70%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $417 −$410 -98%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $408 +$680 +167%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $484 −$475 -98%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $407 −$400 -98%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $408 −$400 -98%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $305 +$393 +129%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $406 −$400 -98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $356 −$350 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$579 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$556 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $507 +$418 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $225 −$220 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $508 +$491 +97%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 16 $190 −$185 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $507 +$454 +90%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $356 +$405 +114%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $506 +$358 +71%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $305 +$453 +148%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $205 +$1,222 +596%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $357 +$564 +158%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $511 +$1,273 +249%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $138 −$27 -19%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $118 −$115 -98%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $393 −$385 -98%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $515 −$122 -24%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $295 −$290 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 25¢ $7 33m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 32¢ $510 39m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 51¢ $1,015 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 15¢ $308 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,017 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $493 15h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco SELL Monaco 96¢ $409 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $407 16h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 25¢ $307 16h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Billy Harris 100¢ $799 16h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 56¢ $243 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 17h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 34¢ $357 17h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 46¢ $508 17h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $355 19h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 36¢ $408 20h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 60¢ $614 20h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 31¢ $337 20h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Daniel Galan 24¢ $307 20h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 36¢ $377 21h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Jacopo Vasami 33¢ $408 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,029 21h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 100¢ $1,511 21h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $1,031 22h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 18¢ $205 22h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Martin Krumich 40¢ $417 22h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau SELL Alexis Galarneau 100¢ $1,088 22h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 42¢ $646 24h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 37¢ $408 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $587 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,172.47 · official $4,172.47 (match) · 1477 history records