Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2375…691f
other · 379 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$22,593 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open +$189
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,147
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$189
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses210 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions19
Markets (closed)437 / 379
History coverage59d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 19 History 437 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,915
7 days−$4,534
14 days−$5,173
30 days−$5,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? No 55¢ 87¢ $353 $557 +$203 (+58%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? No 82¢ 81¢ $312 $310 −$2 (-1%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $125 $125 +$0 (+0%)
Will George Washington Markert be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 82¢ 99¢ $64 $77 +$13 (+21%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $29 $18 −$11 (-39%)
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 95¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Christina Henderson win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? No 85¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-47%)
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 37¢ 11¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-69%)
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? No 10¢ 38¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+275%)
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 71¢ 73¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 88¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? Yes 77¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 7¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 18¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+104%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? No 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? No 15¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference? No 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? No 20¢ 0¢ $536 $0 −$536 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Jun 14 $536 −$536 -100%
Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National Invi Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Jun 14 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 14 $0 +$89 +19371%
Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next video? Jun 14 $64 −$56 -87%
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens make the NHL Playoffs? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 14 $120 −$121 -101%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Jun 14 $13 −$13 -96%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this wee Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? Jun 14 $0 +$60 +152775%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa Jun 14 $37 −$38 -104%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Jun 14 $41 −$39 -96%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top glob Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Aday Mara win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for t Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Will "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" be the top US Netflix movie thi Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta National Invita Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 14 $1,344 −$1,344 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Leavitt say "China" during the next White House Press Briefing? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 14 $0 +$3 +522%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 globa Jun 14 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of th Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? Jun 14 $3 −$4 -118%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kristoffer Reitan finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta Nation Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump say "Oil" during executive order signing today? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump say "China" during executive order signing today? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Bi Jun 14 $24 −$30 -127%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 14 $95 −$107 -112%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 14 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Inv Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Ceasefire" during the next White House press briefin Jun 14 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Jun 14 $1 −$60 -6444%
Will Jordan Spieth finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National In Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will President Trump sign 1 piece of legislation into law in March? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$6,389
politics 32% +$9,842
sports 8% +$1,720
world 3% −$416
culture 2% −$78
crypto 2% +$80
tech 1% −$209
economics 1% +$300
finance 0% +$55
weather 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 55m
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 56m
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 56m
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 35¢ $4 2h
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 35¢ $3 2h
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 35¢ $8 2h
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 50¢ $3 2h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 76¢ $127 2h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 10h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 7¢ $3 11h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 14h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 16h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 16h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 87¢ $11 16h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 16h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 17h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL No 95¢ $2 17h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 18h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 18h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 18h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 18h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 18h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 18h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 18h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 18h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL No 93¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -23.3% -30.6% 15% 12% -59.7%
≤30d 266 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 27% -18.9%
≤90d 437 +18.9% +7.6% 48% 33% -8.6%
all 437 +18.9% +7.6% 48% 33% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 33% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.7% 25% -17.4%
15% -12.1% 19% -25.3%
20% -20.7% 14% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,146.68 · official $1,146.78 (match) · 3500 history records