trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E | Jun 13 | $5 | −$1 | -27% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 10 | $14 | +$4 | +27% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $5 | +$2 | +40% |
| Epic Games IPO before 2027? | May 29 | $5 | −$4 | -74% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 29 | $5 | $0 | -7% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 29 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 29 | $10 | +$2 | +23% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 01 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 08 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 08 | $5 | +$3 | +56% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Apr 08 | $10 | +$5 | +49% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 24 | $5 | −$4 | -79% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Mar 24 | $5 | −$2 | -35% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Mar 18 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | Mar 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 15 | $10 | +$13 | +132% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 10 | $5 | −$2 | -50% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Mar 08 | $10 | +$3 | +28% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Mar 06 | $10 | −$3 | -34% |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | Mar 03 | $10 | −$5 | -50% |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Mar 02 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 01 | $15 | −$7 | -45% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | Mar 01 | $5 | +$3 | +54% |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? | Mar 01 | $10 | +$2 | +23% |
| US strikes Iraq by February 28? | Mar 01 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Mar 01 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026? | Mar 01 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +13.4% | +2.6% | 67% | 67% | +7.0% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 57% | 43% | -3.3% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -20.3% | -27.9% | 47% | 40% | -17.5% |
| all | 27 | -10.5% | -19.0% | 56% | 37% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.0% | 37% | -11.6% |
| 10% | -26.8% | 33% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -33.8% | 19% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -40.3% | 11% | -34.8% |