Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2378…4fec world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$11
other 16% $0
politics 9% −$3
finance 6% −$4
sports 6% +$33
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 12 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 15 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 7% -7.5%
all 30 +3.9% -6.0% 33% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 3% -8.3%
10% -15.0% 3% -17.0%
15% -23.2% 3% -25.1%
20% -30.7% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage252d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $78 −$10 -13%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $122 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $73 −$4 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $54 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $79 +$6 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $58 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $80 −$8 -10%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 23 $22 +$33 +152%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Dec 19 $4 $0 +5%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $37 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $24 −$3 -11%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $68 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $78 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $74 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $74 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $50 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $5 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $45 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $49 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $31 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $54 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $85 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $79 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $40 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $10 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $50 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $34 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $15 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records