Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x237a…8549 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$140 (+21%) realized +$143 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$101
crypto 13% +$31
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +22.8% +11.1% 75% 50% +24.3%
≤30d 8 +22.8% +11.1% 75% 50% +24.3%
≤90d 8 +22.8% +11.1% 75% 50% +24.3%
all 8 +22.8% +11.1% 75% 50% +24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 50% +24.3%
10% +0.5% 38% +12.4%
15% -9.2% 38% +1.5%
20% -18.1% 25% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$15 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.4 per $1 lost it wins $5.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $53 +$8 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$51 +195%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova BUY Tatiana Prozorova 94¢ $10 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.36 · official $307.36 (match) · 23 history records