Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x237a…74a0 crypto 1125 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$147 (+4%) realized +$151 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%622W / 501L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$114
world 8% −$4
other 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.0% +22.1% 100% 100% +22.1%
≤30d 1 +35.0% +22.1% 100% 100% +22.1%
≤90d 1123 -9.0% -17.6% 55% 52% -6.4%
all 1123 -9.0% -17.6% 55% 52% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 52% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 28% -15.4%
15% -32.7% 26% -23.6%
20% -39.3% 24% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses622 / 501
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1123 / 1125
History coverage57d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 55¢ 54¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 19 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 19 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 19 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 18 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 18 $1 +$2 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $86 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $84 11m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $116 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.00 · official $222.00 (match) · 2286 history records