Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x237b…c743 sports 66 markets active 10d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-6%) realized −$248 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%31W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$225
world 28% +$9
other 10% −$2
politics 2% +$8
tech 2% −$38
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -18.7% -26.5% 40% 20% -29.5%
≤90d 13 -29.2% -35.9% 38% 15% -19.8%
all 66 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 42% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 42% -15.7%
10% -22.1% 35% -23.8%
15% -29.6% 30% -31.1%
20% -36.5% 29% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$37 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses31 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage140d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $46 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +12%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 08 $87 −$71 -82%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $78 −$17 -21%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $39 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $70 +$8 +11%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 12 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $628 +$29 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $212 −$5 -2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 28 $101 $0 -0%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 26 $207 +$93 +45%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $102 +$98 +96%
Counter-Strike: NSN vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asi Mar 22 $102 −$2 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 07 $30 +$70 +233%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $90 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $50 +$33 +67%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Peyton Stearns vs Qinwen Zheng Feb 16 $35 $0 +0%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Feb 16 $30 +$37 +122%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Feb 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Feb 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Feb 11 $24 +$14 +56%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $37 +$63 +170%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 10 $8 +$13 +163%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $19 +$13 +70%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Sabres vs. Devils Feb 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 09 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards Feb 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 09 $77 +$23 +30%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Feb 09 $26 +$74 +285%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 08 $44 −$44 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Feb 08 $37 +$28 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Feb 08 $39 +$61 +156%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 08 $42 +$58 +138%
76ers vs. Suns Feb 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 31¢ $31 10d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $25 10d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $26 10d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 44¢ $43 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $38 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $8 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 91¢ $46 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $44 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 27d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes $10 49d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 49d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes $6 49d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $87 64d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $62 72d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $74 73d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $4 73d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? SELL Down 79¢ $40 74d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Down 78¢ $39 74d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 39¢ $78 74d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 74d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Down 78¢ $39 74d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 SELL No 25¢ $23 75d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 BUY No 25¢ $23 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $126 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $108 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $110 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $110 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $110 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $104 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $102 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records