Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x237c…d7ed other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$29
politics 22% −$10
sports 17% −$23
finance 8% −$14
crypto 7% −$13
culture 6% −$4
economics 4% −$2
world 4% −$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 65 -1.1% -10.5% 3% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 116 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
all 133 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 117
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage100d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $119 −$2 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $108 −$2 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $236 −$2 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $200 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $40 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $312 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $273 −$2 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $48 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $236 −$5 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $42 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $285 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $179 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $56 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $57 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $62 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $62 8h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 88¢ $34 9h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $35 15h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $41 16h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $41 24h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $65 24h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $31 29h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $34 29h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $42 30h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $43 38h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $47 38h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $47 47h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $48 47h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $22 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $56 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $57 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $46 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $52 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.56 · official $56.56 (match) · 464 history records