Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x237d…916b crypto 855 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$632 (-4%) realized −$676 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%457W / 397L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$685
7 days−$520
14 days−$757
30 days−$757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$865
other 5% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 659 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 55% -14.0%
≤30d 762 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 54% -14.6%
≤90d 854 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 53% -15.1%
all 854 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 53% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 53% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 53% -23.2%
15% -28.3% 50% -30.6%
20% -35.3% 38% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$676
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses457 / 397
Open positions1
Markets (closed)854 / 855
History coverage37d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 854 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $250 $294 +$44 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 357 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$18 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$76 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$17 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $67 +$71 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$29 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$23 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$11 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$18 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$21 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $35 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$22 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$24 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$47 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$14 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$38 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$7 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$21 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.98 · official $293.98 (match) · 2133 history records