Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2381…7d65 politics 41 markets active 3d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$11
other 27% −$6
world 11% −$2
economics 6% −$1
finance 6% $0
culture 5% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 41 +0.0% -9.5% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 41 +0.0% -9.5% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$875) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage75d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect Jun 13 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,102 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Jun 11 $993 $0 -0%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 25 $62 $0 -0%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $870 $0 +0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 23 $789 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 22 $825 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $829 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? May 20 $31 +$2 +7%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $801 −$2 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $165 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $83 2d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $72 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 2d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 5d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $54 5d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 5d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $1,058 5d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $1,031 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,004 5d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,012 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records