Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x2382…4628 sports 887 markets active 6d ago coverage 173d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 172d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,750 (+74%) realized +$7,750 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%526W / 361L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 173d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$48
other 31% +$163
politics 5% −$15
world 3% +$3
tech 2% +$4
finance 2% −$10
crypto 0% −$6
weather 0% +$3
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -56.9% -61.0% 16% 11% -40.4%
≤30d 323 +4.3% -5.7% 45% 41% -11.6%
≤90d 367 +2.4% -7.3% 45% 42% -9.8%
all 887 +6.0% -4.1% 59% 39% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 39% -7.8%
10% -13.3% 25% -16.6%
15% -21.7% 20% -24.7%
20% -29.4% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,750
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses526 / 361
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)887 / 887
History coverage173d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 887 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Combination" or "Sequence" 5+ times during UF Jun 26 $1 +$5 +400%
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 20+ times during the U Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Shorty" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fi Jun 23 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 23 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -20%
Will "Pearl" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fin Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Hunter's Fury" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will anyone say "Idiot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Tim Cook say "Open Source" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Ju Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Starmer say "Muslim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tim Cook say "Google" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8t Jun 23 $3 $0 -13%
Will Starmer say "European Union" during the next Prime Minister's Que Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rick and Mort Jun 23 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 23 $34 +$6 +19%
Will "Stinger" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand F Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oracle say "Tariff" during earnings call? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 23 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 23 $8 −$6 -85%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 23 $14 −$4 -30%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will anyone say "President" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 23 $4 $0 -1%
Will the announcers say "Submission" during UFC 250? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 23 $14 −$4 -29%
Will Starmer say "Apologize" during the next Prime Minister's Question Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tim Cook say "Apple Pay" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 23 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during UFC 250? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Dangerous" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 23 $17 −$7 -40%
Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questio Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Oracle say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 50+ times during ear Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $23 −$3 -13%
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Shorty" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fi BUY Yes 24¢ $0 5d
Will "Hunter's Fury" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY No 11¢ $1 5d
Will "Six Seven" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand BUY No 20¢ $1 6d
Will "Stinger" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand F BUY No 12¢ $1 7d
Will "Prowler" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand F BUY No 13¢ $1 8d
Will "Ninja" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fin BUY No 87¢ $9 8d
Will "Ninja" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fin BUY No 90¢ $9 8d
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 9d
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY No 14¢ $1 9d
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY No 14¢ $1 9d
Will "Clutch" be said 15+ times during the Valorant Masters London 202 BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 65¢ $6 9d
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 74¢ $7 9d
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9d
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY No 74¢ $7 9d
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9d
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will "Fake Clone" or "Fake Cloning" be said during the Valorant Master BUY No 76¢ $8 9d
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY No 74¢ $6 9d
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 53¢ $1 10d
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 53¢ $5 10d
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10d
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? BUY No 24¢ $2 10d
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 63¢ $5 10d
Will "Shorty" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fi BUY No 23¢ $1 10d
Will "Pearl" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fin BUY No 12¢ $1 10d
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 39¢ $0 10d
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 39¢ $4 10d
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 53¢ $5 10d
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 14¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records