Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2385…9a13
sports · 308 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$38 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$32 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$87
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses171 / 111
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions26
Markets (closed)282 / 308
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day166.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 26 History 282 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 41¢ 96¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+133%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 68¢ 85¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+26%)
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Colorado Rockies 82¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Golden State Valkyries 51¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+58%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Over 50¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 48¢ 78¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+65%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 65¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 54¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Under 38¢ 53¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Golden State Valkyries 73¢ 95¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 71¢ 86¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Under 55¢ 61¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Under 42¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+113%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Under 53¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Under 65¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Over 62¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 57¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+41%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Golden State Valkyries 46¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Under 56¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Under 60¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 88¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$2 +87%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $8 +$1 +15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 -8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $7 +$1 +13%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $7 +$9 +133%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +77%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 +$6 +269%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$3 +238%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $8 −$7 -81%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +132%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $8 +$2 +21%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +126%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $7 +$1 +15%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% +$34
crypto 8% $0
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 74¢ $1 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 3m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 3m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 5m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $1 6m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $4 6m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $1 6m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $1 17m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $1 17m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 30¢ $1 17m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 20m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 20m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 24m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 37m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 46¢ $1 45m
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 90¢ $1 45m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 51¢ $3 47m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 76¢ $1 47m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 62¢ $1 47m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 95¢ $1 48m
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 82¢ $1 48m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 74¢ $1 55m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 68¢ $1 56m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 72¢ $1 57m
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 60¢ $1 57m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 52¢ $1 58m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 59m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 52% -7.2%
≤30d 282 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 52% -7.2%
≤90d 282 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 52% -7.2%
all 282 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 52% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover166.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 52% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 39% -16.1%
15% -16.0% 30% -24.2%
20% -24.2% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.75 · official $87.13 (match) · 870 history records