Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x2387…cb00 politics 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$4
other 29% −$2
crypto 10% −$1
economics 10% −$1
sports 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage164d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $178 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jan 20 $393 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $200 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jan 14 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 13 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $497 −$1 -0%
Will The Art Of Loving by Olivia Dean be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $498 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 26m
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 3h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 5h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 6h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 7h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 8h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 9h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 10h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 13h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 16h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 21h
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $13 140d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $10 140d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $10 140d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $13 140d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $12 146d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $12 146d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $12 146d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $12 146d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $393 153d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $100 153d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $393 153d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $100 153d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 154d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $114 154d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $120 154d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $200 154d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $114 154d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.12 · official $386.12 (match) · 61 history records