Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x2391…43ae politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 684d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,005 (+11%) realized +$1,001 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$4
other 28% +$23
crypto 24% +$984
economics 5% −$1
weather 3% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +72.5% +56.1% 75% 75% +48.1%
all 31 +44.3% +30.6% 26% 23% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.6% 23% +2.4%
10% +18.1% 23% -7.4%
15% +6.7% 23% -16.3%
20% -3.8% 23% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -40% → late +124% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$26 · ×7.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

684d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$1,001
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage684d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 08 $116 +$108 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 14 $258 +$258 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Apr 13 $260 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 25 $113 +$109 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 10 $111 −$110 -98%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 06 $1,955 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9AM ET Jan 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3AM ET Jan 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 28, 7AM ET Dec 28 $202 +$194 +96%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 7AM ET Dec 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 07 $205 +$205 +100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 17 $1,852 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6PM ET Oct 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 3AM ET Oct 14 $716 +$651 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Oct 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Lucie Castets be the next Prime Minister of France? Sep 09 $9 $0 -2%
Will turnout be less than 900000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary Jul 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Aug 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Aug 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Aug 07 $454 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Aug 07 $502 −$1 -0%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 07 $752 −$1 -0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Aug 07 $461 −$3 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $737 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $138 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $116 45d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $130 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $128 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $113 89d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $111 103d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 98¢ $41 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 97¢ $2 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 97¢ $100 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 97¢ $139 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 98¢ $450 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 96¢ $25 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 96¢ $1 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 96¢ $5 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 96¢ $17 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 96¢ $79 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 96¢ $17 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 96¢ $48 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 96¢ $192 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of BUY Yes 93¢ $46 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of BUY Yes 93¢ $93 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of BUY Yes 93¢ $205 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of BUY Yes 93¢ $30 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of BUY Yes 93¢ $279 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of BUY Yes 93¢ $40 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL No 5¢ $51 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 94¢ $127 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 93¢ $1 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of SELL Yes 93¢ $125 108d
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of BUY Yes 91¢ $2 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.37 · official $189.37 (match) · 350 history records