Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2392…5952 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-16%) realized −$23 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$22
sports 27% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.0% -36.7% 44% 44% -24.2%
≤30d 9 -30.0% -36.7% 44% 44% -24.2%
≤90d 9 -30.0% -36.7% 44% 44% -24.2%
all 9 -30.0% -36.7% 44% 44% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 44% -24.2%
10% -42.8% 44% -31.5%
15% -48.3% 44% -38.1%
20% -53.4% 33% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +47%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $33 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 37h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 39h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.38 · official $36.38 (match) · 23 history records