Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x2394…ea1e crypto 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%135W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$17
weather 27% −$108
world 5% +$2
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 65 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 0% -11.5%
all 138 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$41 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses135 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage143d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $61 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $79 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 18? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 17? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 8? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $115 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on May 31? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on May 29? May 30 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 26? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 26? May 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23? May 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 16? May 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 19°C on May 16? May 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3? May 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 3? May 03 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 1? May 03 $114 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $100 in April? May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 29? Apr 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 28? Apr 29 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 27? Apr 27 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 26? Apr 26 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 22? Apr 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 22? Apr 22 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 20? Apr 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19? Apr 20 $71 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 17? Apr 18 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 16? Apr 16 $67 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 15? Apr 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 13? Apr 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 11? Apr 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $183 −$123 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 10? Apr 10 $189 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on April 8? Apr 09 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on April 6? Apr 07 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on April 4? Apr 05 $228 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $117 47h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $18 7d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $61 8d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $79 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $68 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 15d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $116 17d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $116 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $115 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $115 23d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $115 26d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $115 29d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $115 32d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $114 32d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $35 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $79 35d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $114 36d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 43d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 19°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $114 45d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.33 · official $117.33 (match) · 327 history records