Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x2395…3101 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$557 (+5%) realized +$560 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%53W / 37L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days+$35
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$676
other 2% +$6
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.5% +9.9% 80% 80% -19.0%
≤30d 32 +5.5% -4.5% 72% 59% -6.4%
≤90d 40 +6.8% -3.3% 65% 55% -8.1%
all 90 +6.1% -4.0% 59% 50% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 50% -3.8%
10% -13.2% 34% -13.0%
15% -21.6% 27% -21.4%
20% -29.3% 18% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$36 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$560
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses53 / 37
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage241d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner T1 78¢ 74¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $65 +$7 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $27 +$4 +16%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $15 +$19 +131%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $109 −$74 -68%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $73 +$13 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $143 +$65 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $127 +$17 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $113 +$13 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $191 +$50 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $128 −$66 -52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $91 −$24 -27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $27 −$16 -59%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$7 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 −$8 -25%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$8 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $11 +$4 +41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $9 +$1 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $33 −$24 -72%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $102 +$35 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $78 +$24 +30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $74 +$4 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $76 −$2 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $63 −$4 -6%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $57 +$7 +12%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $48 +$8 +17%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $38 +$10 +26%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $38 +$1 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $96 −$31 -33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $62 +$7 +11%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $57 +$5 +10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $49 +$8 +16%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $45 +$4 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $37 +$8 +23%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $38 −$2 -4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $28 +$10 +38%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 27 $29 −$1 -4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $30 −$1 -4%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $19 +$11 +59%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $446 −$47 -10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $469 −$3 -1%
Will Bin win MVP at First Stand? Mar 23 $64 +$5 +7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $156 −$13 -8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $49 +$28 +56%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $132 −$1 -1%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $42 $0 -1%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 20 $195 −$79 -40%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $63 +$58 +92%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $763 −$277 -36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner Mar 19 $406 +$50 +12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Mar 19 $352 +$53 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $72 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $72 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $65 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $32 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $34 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $13 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $13 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $15 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $8 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 45¢ $8 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $15 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 84¢ $15 7h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 15¢ $15 7h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $87 7h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $87 7h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $73 11h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $208 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $143 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $127 15d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $127 15d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $113 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $113 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $56 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $56 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $59 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 43¢ $59 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $72 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $72 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 83¢ $48 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 43¢ $48 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.51 · official $68.51 (match) · 258 history records