Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2396…57dc
world · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$482 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$379 · open +$129
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1,734
Realized+$379
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses47 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)75 / 92
History coverage83d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 17 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$15
14 days+$376
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $369 $406 +$37 (+10%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $229 $222 −$7 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $220 $217 −$3 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $194 $205 +$10 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $119 $142 +$23 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $113 $129 +$16 (+14%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 98¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 81¢ $85 $95 +$10 (+12%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $58 $61 +$3 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 19¢ 50¢ $13 $35 +$22 (+166%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 78¢ 99¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+27%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 86¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 87¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $804 +$39 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $23 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $903 +$407 +45%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $9 +$7 +79%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $29 +$8 +26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $219 +$28 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $251 −$106 -42%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $180 −$13 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $129 +$92 +72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $37 −$21 -58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $9 +$1 +9%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $28 +$7 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $51 −$30 -58%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $16 +$39 +250%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $21 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $470 +$9 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $54 −$25 -46%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $50 +$17 +34%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? May 18 $400 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $57 +$13 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $38 −$21 -56%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $383 −$7 -2%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $13 −$8 -60%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $80 +$53 +66%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $78 +$8 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $34 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $47 +$10 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $121 +$7 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $6 $0 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $2 +$3 +138%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $755 −$25 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $53 +$106 +201%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 01 $683 −$16 -2%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $89 +$3 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $215 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $420 +$48 +11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $110 +$45 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $65 +$4 +6%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? Apr 24 $28 +$1 +4%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $27 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% −$41
other 14% −$37
crypto 9% +$442
politics 6% +$73
sports 4% +$70
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $38 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $36 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -35.0% -41.2% 40% 20% -7.9%
≤30d 33 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 33% -1.8%
≤90d 75 +3.6% -6.3% 63% 28% -6.3%
all 75 +3.6% -6.3% 63% 28% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 28% -6.3%
10% -15.2% 19% -15.3%
15% -23.4% 13% -23.5%
20% -30.9% 11% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,734.46 · official $1,734.47 (match) · 1488 history records