Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2397…55bc sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized +$48 · open −$54
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$97
other 16% +$59
crypto 12% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +19.8% +8.4% 36% 32% +2.2%
≤30d 27 +10.9% +0.4% 33% 30% -6.3%
≤90d 49 +6.2% -3.9% 35% 33% -9.4%
all 49 +6.2% -3.9% 35% 33% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 33% -9.4%
10% -13.1% 33% -18.1%
15% -21.5% 33% -26.0%
20% -29.2% 31% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage71d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 23¢ 72¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+215%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 47¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$61 +596%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +303%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +149%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$36 +234%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +408%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +6%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $36 −$34 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $26 −$25 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $42 +$30 +71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) May 02 $27 +$31 +112%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $25 +$47 +185%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $40 +$40 +101%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) May 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs SPARTA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League E May 01 $42 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 01 $22 +$20 +91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 01 $10 +$8 +78%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $10 +$52 +509%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $21 +$34 +161%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up $5 57m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $20 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $40 5h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 17h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 18h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 18h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 18h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 18h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 19h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $5 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 23h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $30 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.83 · official $8.88 · 90 history records