Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
23 0x239a…37dc other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$435 (+101%) realized +$436 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$16
14 days+$455
30 days+$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$462
other 42% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -25.9%
≤30d 6 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% +116.0%
≤90d 6 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% +116.0%
all 6 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% +116.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 33% +116.0%
10% -26.9% 33% +95.3%
15% -34.0% 33% +76.5%
20% -40.5% 33% +59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +139% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +139% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$22 · ×12.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.18 per $1 lost it wins $6.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$436
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage12d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $40 +$32 +81%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $200 +$510 +255%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 8d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $710 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $200 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.15 · official $96.15 (match) · 10 history records