Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

23 0x239a…7fb1 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,499 (-31%) realized −$2,496 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR11%break-even

Win rate89%17W / 2L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$363per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$26

7 days+$67

14 days−$2,561

30 days−$2,561

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +11%

net ROI/market (all)-14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+2.5%	-7.3%	100%	7%	-7.6%
≤30d	19	-5.6%	-14.6%	89%	11%	-40.6%
≤90d	19	-5.6%	-14.6%	89%	11%	-40.6%
all	19	-5.6%	-14.6%	89%	11%	-40.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.6%	11%	-40.6%
10%	-22.8%	0%	-46.3%
15%	-30.3%	0%	-51.5%
20%	-37.1%	0%	-56.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 35% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

88% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$509) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -13% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$1,329 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage

Net worth$415

Realized−$2,496

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)89%

Wins / losses17 / 2

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 22

History coverage41d

Avg bet$363

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26?	No	98¢	97¢	$308	$306	−$2 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5	Over	86¢	86¢	$110	$109	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Solana Up or Down on June 26?	Jun 26	$514	+$15	+3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25?	Jun 26	$509	+$5	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25?	Jun 25	$504	+$5	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24?	Jun 25	$170	+$2	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24?	Jun 24	$165	+$4	+2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 23?	Jun 24	$165	+$1	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?	Jun 23	$163	+$2	+1%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 22?	Jun 23	$162	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22?	Jun 22	$158	+$4	+2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 21?	Jun 22	$157	+$1	+1%
Solana Up or Down on June 21?	Jun 21	$139	+$19	+14%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 20?	Jun 21	$132	+$6	+4%
Solana Up or Down on June 20?	Jun 20	$131	+$1	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19?	Jun 20	$129	+$2	+2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19?	Jun 19	$113	+$16	+14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18?	Jun 19	$111	+$2	+2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 15	$2,006	−$1,199	-60%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Jun 15	$1,460	−$1,460	-100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Jun 14	$555	+$12	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26?	BUY No	98¢	$308	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	86¢	$110	1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	47¢	$110	1h
Solana Up or Down on June 26?	BUY Up	97¢	$514	10h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25?	BUY No	99¢	$509	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25?	BUY Down	99¢	$504	26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24?	BUY No	99¢	$170	40h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24?	BUY Down	97¢	$165	2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 23?	BUY No	100¢	$165	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23?	BUY Down	99¢	$163	3d
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 22?	BUY No	99¢	$162	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22?	BUY Up	98¢	$158	4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 21?	BUY No	99¢	$157	4d
Solana Up or Down on June 21?	BUY Up	87¢	$139	5d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 20?	BUY No	96¢	$132	5d
Solana Up or Down on June 20?	BUY Up	99¢	$131	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19?	BUY No	98¢	$129	6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19?	BUY Up	87¢	$113	7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18?	BUY No	98¢	$111	7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY No	46¢	$300	12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY No	45¢	$160	12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$567	12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY No	76¢	$1,000	19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$555	23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	69¢	$812	25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL No	31¢	$808	25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	43¢	$1,194	41d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.97 · official $523.26 · 45 history records