Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x239c…f7c2 crypto 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (371 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$685 (-9%) realized −$680 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%88W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day371.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$914
sports 3% +$2
other 2% −$6
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (371 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 38% -20.8%
≤30d 190 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 38% -20.8%
≤90d 190 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 38% -20.8%
all 190 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 38% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover371.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 38% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 28% -28.4%
15% -38.1% 21% -35.3%
20% -44.1% 17% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$25 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$680
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses88 / 102
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions16
Markets (closed)190 / 206
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day371.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 62¢ 55¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 37¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Scotland 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Mexico leading at halftime? No 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 82¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $78 −$27 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$8 +140%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 18 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $6 +$6 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$4 +62%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 40m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $0 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.25 · official $143.25 (match) · 903 history records