Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x239d…f8a5 sports 608 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,665 (-2%) realized −$5,669 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate54%326W / 275L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$525per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$38
14 days+$39
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$416
sports 4% +$1,211
other 4% −$3,343
culture 4% −$3,456
weather 2% +$78
world 2% −$270
politics 1% −$525
tech 1% −$27
finance 1% −$129
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.9% -5.1% 89% 33% -4.0%
≤30d 45 -1.9% -11.2% 62% 22% -8.0%
≤90d 203 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 18% -10.5%
all 601 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 26% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 26% -11.2%
10% -24.4% 16% -19.7%
15% -31.7% 10% -27.5%
20% -38.4% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$45 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$5,669
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses326 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)601 / 608
History coverage246d
Avg bet$525
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 601 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $161 $165 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $93 +$20 +21%
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +11%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shaiikademy vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - Asia Paci Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $264 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $121 +$3 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +20%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $3 $0 +16%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $163 −$1 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $178 −$3 -2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $239 −$4 -2%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 02 $178 +$9 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $53 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $290 −$8 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $240 −$7 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 31? May 30 $330 −$9 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $17 +$45 +261%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $18 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $241 −$5 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $70 −$12 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $127 +$117 +92%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 29 $669 −$80 -12%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $269 −$19 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $161 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY 61¢ $20 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $144 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 73¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $102 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $73 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $73 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 71¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $93 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 71¢ $20 6d
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 6d
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 82¢ $93 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $92 9d
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 79¢ $3 11d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL 51¢ $19 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $21 12d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 53¢ $20 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 63¢ $10 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 65¢ $4 13d
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 13d
Rainbow Six Siege: Shaiikademy vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - Asia Paci BUY ENTERPRISE Esports 93¢ $1 14d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 15d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 15d
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 15d
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 15d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 86¢ $50 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.48 · official $185.24 · 1954 history records