Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x239f…8b82 other 332 markets active 2h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,014 (-7%) realized −$947 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%29W / 292L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$261
14 days−$297
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$164
other 17% −$101
world 8% −$32
sports 7% −$732
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% −$5
tech 2% −$4
culture 1% −$20
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -9.3% -18.0% 6% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 293 -9.2% -17.8% 6% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 294 -9.1% -17.8% 6% 0% -13.7%
all 321 -9.0% -17.7% 9% 1% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -15.9%
10% -25.5% 0% -23.9%
15% -32.7% 0% -31.3%
20% -39.3% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$947
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses29 / 292
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)321 / 332
History coverage692d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? No 75¢ 60¢ $37 $29 −$8 (-21%)
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No 50¢ 38¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $20 $14 −$7 (-33%)
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 84¢ 58¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-30%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 50¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-70%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 19¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-60%)
Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet? No 14¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? No 9¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will 100T make a roster change before August? No 70¢ 3¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-96%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima Jun 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 25 $14 −$6 -41%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 25 $27 −$3 -13%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Jun 25 $9 $0 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 25 $97 $0 -0%
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 25 $34 −$3 -10%
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $11 $0 -3%
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 25 $8 $0 -2%
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 25 $14 $0 -2%
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 25 $34 $0 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December Jun 25 $16 −$4 -23%
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber Jun 25 $79 −$10 -12%
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 25 $37 −$6 -18%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 25 $52 −$3 -6%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 25 $48 −$14 -28%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-03 House seat? Jun 25 $2 $0 -25%
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? Jun 25 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -37%
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat? Jun 25 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential Jun 25 $13 −$3 -25%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater th Jun 25 $15 −$1 -6%
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 25 $17 −$2 -14%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre Jun 25 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? Jun 25 $18 −$2 -12%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco Jun 25 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat? Jun 25 $18 $0 -2%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 25 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 25 $42 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat? Jun 24 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? Jun 24 $44 $0 +1%
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 24 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 24 $76 −$4 -5%
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential e Jun 24 $15 −$1 -4%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 24 $46 −$1 -3%
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima SELL No 91¢ $45 1h
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election SELL No 8¢ $4 1h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL Yes 61¢ $23 1h
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 9¢ $2 2h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 19¢ $5 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3h
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 3h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $15 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $21 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $36 4h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY No 9¢ $4 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5h
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 6h
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 6h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 19¢ $4 6h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 19¢ $9 6h
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $15 7h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 9h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 9h
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 10h
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 10h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 69¢ $15 10h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 69¢ $12 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.19 · official $94.19 (match) · 1016 history records