Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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23 0x239f…ffa6 crypto 1587 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,581 (-45%) realized −$1,123 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%324W / 1219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day46.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$55
14 days−$33
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,171
sports 0% +$18
other 0% +$21
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -11.1% -19.6% 24% 22% -31.0%
≤30d 291 -10.0% -18.6% 30% 29% -14.5%
≤90d 1543 -25.4% -32.5% 21% 20% -28.9%
all 1543 -25.4% -32.5% 21% 20% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.5% 20% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.0% 19% -35.7%
15% -44.9% 18% -42.0%
20% -50.3% 17% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,123
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses324 / 1219
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1543 / 1587
History coverage60d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 53¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$15 +712%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$8 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $2 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.27 · official $3.27 (match) · 3500 history records