Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23a5…28cc other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% $0
other 22% $0
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -8.7% -17.4% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage561d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Sep 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $315 $0 +0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Jun 16 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $1 $0 -1%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Feb 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 24d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $0 48d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 48d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $6 49d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 77d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 77d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 91d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 91d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $8 111d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $8 111d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 140d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 140d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 177d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 177d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 202d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 202d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 230d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 230d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $8 258d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $8 259d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 292d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 292d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $2 293d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 331d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 331d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 365d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records