Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x23a6…9531 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$144 (+40%) realized +$154 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$174
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$28
crypto 37% +$113
world 7% −$11
sports 4% +$29
politics 4% −$9
culture 1% −$5
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +55.5% +40.7% 70% 70% +70.6%
≤30d 15 +27.2% +15.1% 67% 67% +62.0%
≤90d 15 +27.2% +15.1% 67% 67% +62.0%
all 33 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 42% +46.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 42% +46.5%
10% -25.1% 27% +32.5%
15% -32.4% 27% +19.7%
20% -39.0% 21% +8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +62% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×6.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.2 per $1 lost it wins $5.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)33 / 45
History coverage154d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 52¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 44¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$109 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $3 +$5 +168%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -69%
Will India join the Board of Peace? Feb 28 $1 $0 -22%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 -39%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $1 $0 +19%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 22 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W Jan 26 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Truth Social" in January? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 39h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 10d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 108d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 86¢ $1 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 108d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 82¢ $1 108d
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.62 · official $99.64 (match) · 70 history records