Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23a6…d758 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$181 (-44%) realized −$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -48.5% -53.4% 29% 29% -42.6%
≤30d 7 -48.5% -53.4% 29% 29% -42.6%
≤90d 7 -48.5% -53.4% 29% 29% -42.6%
all 7 -48.5% -53.4% 29% 29% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.4% 29% -42.6%
10% ← realistic here -57.8% 29% -48.1%
15% -61.9% 14% -53.1%
20% -65.6% 14% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$55 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $136 −$111 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$63 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $64 −$49 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $119 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $119 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $55 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $14 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records