Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x23a9…68ef sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$210 (+2%) realized +$164 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$496
7 days+$496
14 days+$496
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$46
other 1% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +54.7% +39.9% 83% 83% +21.6%
≤30d 67 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 40% -4.4%
≤90d 67 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 40% -4.4%
all 67 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 40% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 40% -4.4%
10% -30.5% 36% -13.6%
15% -37.2% 28% -21.9%
20% -43.4% 25% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$59 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage25d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ 100¢ $398 $444 +$46 (+12%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 71¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $519 +$115 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $88 +$93 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $38 +$48 +128%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $102 −$31 -30%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $502 +$117 +23%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $192 +$153 +80%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $180 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $111 +$88 +80%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $202 −$45 -22%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $201 −$100 -50%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $150 −$107 -71%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $225 −$224 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $104 +$33 +32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $26 −$4 -17%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $401 +$102 +25%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $203 −$121 -60%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $29 −$28 -94%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $104 +$97 +93%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $237 +$195 +82%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$4 -42%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $36 −$11 -30%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 31 $106 −$105 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 31 $100 +$76 +76%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $257 −$157 -61%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $252 +$284 +112%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $105 −$53 -51%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $97 −$96 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $100 +$85 +85%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 31 $202 −$77 -38%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $200 +$80 +40%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $71 −$37 -53%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $145 +$246 +170%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $93 +$11 +12%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $130 +$18 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $152 −$20 -13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $36 −$16 -44%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $150 +$14 +10%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 2 Winner May 29 $50 +$29 +58%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $102 −$35 -34%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner May 29 $75 +$39 +51%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $50 +$29 +58%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $30 +$3 +9%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $30 +$9 +31%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 29 $25 −$14 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $100 7m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $7 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $93 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $8 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $27 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $5 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $5 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $5 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $27 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $23 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $99 8m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 24¢ $2 11m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 24¢ $70 11m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 24¢ $0 11m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $100 11m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $341 13m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $102 16m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $102 17m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $102 17m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 52¢ $74 18m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 52¢ $17 18m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $26 18m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $74 18m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $30 19m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $26 19m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $42 19m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $3 19m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $5 19m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $25 20m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $14 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.40 · official $444.40 (match) · 468 history records