Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
23 0x23ac…433d other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,372 (-65%) realized −$1,383 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$1,217
sports 10% −$9
other 9% −$104
world 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-82.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -76.9% -79.1% 0% 0% -58.3%
≤30d 6 -76.9% -79.1% 0% 0% -58.3%
≤90d 6 -76.9% -79.1% 0% 0% -58.3%
all 7 -80.2% -82.1% 0% 0% -85.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.1% 0% -85.6%
10% -83.8% 0% -86.9%
15% -85.4% 0% -88.2%
20% -86.8% 0% -89.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -157% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$197 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$1,383
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage94d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 39¢ 32¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 0¢ 22¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+0%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Yes 0¢ 16¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$62 -61%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $101 −$1 -1%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $43 −$42 -98%
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists Jun 21 $2 $0 -15%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 22 $1,674 −$1,217 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 3m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 53m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-3.5) AND Kylian Mbappé: BUY 10¢ $51 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 23h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 52¢ $101 24h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $101 25h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $43 25h
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists BUY No 1¢ $0 26h
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $6 26h
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $2 26h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $20 26h
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 6¢ $119 91d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 49¢ $457 91d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 SELL Yes 18¢ $457 92d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 44¢ $1,098 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.15 · official $118.15 · 19 history records