Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23ae…60a6 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-3%) realized −$66 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$217
sports 19% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -26.5% -33.5% 35% 35% -7.0%
≤30d 34 -26.5% -33.5% 35% 35% -7.0%
≤90d 34 -26.5% -33.5% 35% 35% -7.0%
all 34 -26.5% -33.5% 35% 35% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 35% -7.0%
10% -39.8% 29% -15.9%
15% -45.7% 18% -24.0%
20% -51.0% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$21 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 47
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) EDward Gaming 57¢ 56¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$116 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$20 +20%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 +$16 +784%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 +$67 +53%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$19 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$98 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$96 +48%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$1 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $151 −$127 -84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 11m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 19¢ $15 20m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 85¢ $319 57m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $101 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $121 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $76 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 29h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 5¢ $5 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 6¢ $5 36h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 5¢ $5 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 7¢ $5 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $20 38h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.97 · official $196.97 · 66 history records