Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x23b0…13a3 sports 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,261 (-3%) realized −$2,065 · open −$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%29W / 58L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$898per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1,255est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 189d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$1,082
other 28% −$3,334
world 3% −$1,695
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -20.5% -28.1% 30% 26% -22.5%
≤30d 86 -8.2% -16.9% 33% 29% -18.5%
≤90d 86 -8.2% -16.9% 33% 29% -18.5%
all 87 -7.7% -16.4% 33% 30% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 30% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 29% -24.2%
15% -31.7% 29% -31.5%
20% -38.4% 26% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,080) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,543 vs −$873 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$7,480
Realized−$2,065
Unrealized−$196
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,255
Open positions11
Markets (closed)87 / 98
History coverage189d
Avg bet$898
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $1,200 $1,185 −$15 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $1,140 $1,125 −$15 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1,110 $1,065 −$45 (-4%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) New Zealand 38¢ 34¢ $1,140 $1,035 −$105 (-9%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $720 $735 +$15 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $660 $705 +$45 (+7%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $750 $705 −$45 (-6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $720 $675 −$45 (-6%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 26¢ $134 $137 +$3 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $91 $101 +$9 (+10%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Under 23¢ 28¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,151 −$2,150 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $521 +$1,479 +284%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,080 +$1,920 +178%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $238 −$238 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $754 −$754 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 25 $682 −$682 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $686 −$658 -96%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 25 $572 −$572 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $902 −$902 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $450 −$450 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,201 −$1,201 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $390 −$390 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $828 −$828 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $690 −$690 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $750 −$750 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $960 −$960 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,200 +$1,800 +150%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $16 +$1 +8%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,170 +$2,990 +256%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,260 +$1,740 +138%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $660 −$660 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $540 −$540 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $2,800 +$1,200 +43%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $690 −$690 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $660 −$660 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $38 +$4 +10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $630 +$2,370 +376%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $820 +$1,180 +144%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $930 +$2,070 +223%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $990 −$990 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $331 +$1,469 +444%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,345 +$1,841 +78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $570 −$570 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $744 −$744 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $810 −$810 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $840 −$840 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $530 −$530 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $880 −$880 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $520 −$520 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $840 −$840 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $660 −$660 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,066 +$1,935 +182%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $840 −$840 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 13m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 20m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 26m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 32m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 48m
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $819 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,063 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,000 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,480.34 · official $7,480.64 (match) · 2192 history records