Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23b8…63ac crypto 1185 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,923 (-16%) realized −$17,913 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%313W / 869L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$157
7 days−$157
14 days−$157
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$23,411
other 1% −$696
world 1% −$320
politics 0% −$240
economics 0% −$185
tech 0% −$59
sports 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -71.8% -74.5% 17% 17% -80.1%
≤30d 6 -71.8% -74.5% 17% 17% -80.1%
≤90d 6 -71.8% -74.5% 17% 17% -80.1%
all 1182 -41.4% -46.9% 26% 24% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.9% 24% -31.9%
10% -52.0% 22% -38.4%
15% -56.7% 20% -44.3%
20% -60.9% 17% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$68 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,913
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses313 / 869
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1182 / 1185
History coverage233d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$75 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 19 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10PM ET Jan 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1AM ET Jan 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 18 $105 +$56 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 18 $67 −$50 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 18 $100 −$50 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12PM ET Jan 17 $100 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 17 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 17 $245 −$85 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Jan 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6PM ET Jan 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? Jan 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 16 $50 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5PM ET Jan 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 16 $50 +$67 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7PM ET Jan 16 $525 −$525 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 16 $100 +$80 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 15 $60 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 15 $50 +$31 +63%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $550 −$300 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12AM ET Jan 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 15 $50 +$41 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 15 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11PM ET Jan 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 14 $250 −$246 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10PM ET Jan 14 $250 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 10 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8PM ET Jan 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 10 $47 +$44 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7PM ET Jan 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $44 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $50 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $50 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $50 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $250 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $50 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $50 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $50 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $19 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $17 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $119 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $50 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $50 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $50 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.56 (match) · 2738 history records