Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x23ba…1783 crypto 573 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$791 (-8%) realized −$791 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%229W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$748
sports 11% −$190
other 5% −$73
politics 1% $0
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.7% -30.1% 33% 33% -12.7%
≤30d 8 -20.4% -28.0% 50% 38% -15.1%
≤90d 8 -20.4% -28.0% 50% 38% -15.1%
all 572 -12.2% -20.6% 40% 34% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 34% -19.6%
10% -28.2% 28% -27.3%
15% -35.1% 23% -34.3%
20% -41.5% 17% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$791
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses229 / 343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)572 / 573
History coverage170d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 572 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $57 −$9 -16%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $23 +$11 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $2 +$3 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 22 $1 +$2 +161%
Will Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 22 $20 −$18 -92%
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. TCU Horned Frogs Feb 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Central Michigan Chippewas Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 21 $19 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 21 $7 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Missouri State Bears vs. Florida International Golden Panthers Feb 21 $50 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 21 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 21 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 21 $54 +$38 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Le Moyne Dolphins vs. Stonehill Skyhawks Feb 21 $100 −$45 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 21 $20 +$30 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 21 $30 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 21 $10 +$6 +64%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Passion UA (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Feb 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - European Pro League Se Feb 21 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 21 $20 +$27 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 21 $30 +$15 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 21 $40 +$19 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $48 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 2h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 100¢ $34 30h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 67¢ $23 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 78¢ $9 125d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $3 125d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 125d
Will Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 125d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $20 126d
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. TCU Horned Frogs BUY West Virginia Mountaineers 22¢ $30 126d
Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats BUY Alabama A&M Bulldogs 19¢ $20 126d
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Central Michigan Chippewas BUY Western Michigan Broncos 24¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $30 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $13 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.85 · official $46.85 (match) · 1720 history records