Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23bb…6106 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$7
other 25% −$1
culture 23% +$1
politics 11% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 0% -7.9%
all 34 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage302d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $41 +$3 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $38 +$3 +8%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 10 $243 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $14 +$1 +5%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 07 $242 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $4 $0 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $4 $0 -12%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $6 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $20 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $48 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $48 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $44 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $37 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 70¢ $37 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 70¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $45 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $20 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $19 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $25 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $16 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 28d
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 SELL Yes 13¢ $34 100d
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 SELL Yes 13¢ $18 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.44 · official $44.44 (match) · 115 history records