Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23c4…bb36 crypto 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$47 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate54%107W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$36
other 24% −$19
politics 13% −$2
sports 6% +$8
world 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -3.9% -13.1% 82% 18% -9.2%
≤90d 114 -14.4% -22.5% 57% 8% -9.7%
all 199 -13.8% -22.0% 54% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 7% -9.8%
10% -29.5% 7% -18.4%
15% -36.3% 7% -26.3%
20% -42.6% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses107 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)199 / 201
History coverage163d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 2? Jun 26 $106 $0 +0%
Foggia: Elizara Yaneva vs Lisa Pigato Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 31 $6 +$4 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 31 $93 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 28? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $5 +$4 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $114 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $110 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $4 +$5 +129%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 23 $117 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $4 +$4 +105%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 18 $121 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $121 $0 +0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $110 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $121 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 14 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $111 $0 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final May 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 10? May 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 10? May 11 $69 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens May 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden May 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$245 on the final day of trading of the w May 09 $119 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 7? May 08 $118 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $107 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 07 $4 +$3 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 5? May 06 $32 +$3 +9%
Will XRP dip to $1.35 on May 5? May 06 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 4? May 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 4? May 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 2? May 03 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 25d
Foggia: Elizara Yaneva vs Lisa Pigato BUY Elizara Yaneva 40¢ $4 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 26d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $4 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 27d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 57¢ $6 27d
Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 28d
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 31d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $114 31d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 54¢ $5 31d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $114 31d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $110 31d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $110 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 33d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $4 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $117 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 37d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY MIBR 48¢ $4 38d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY Yes $5 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY Yes $3 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $121 40d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 41d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $110 41d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $110 41d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.28 · official $123.29 (match) · 374 history records