Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
23 0x23c6…6b2b crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$122 (+290%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +236% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +192% what you keep after slip
Net edge+192%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+204.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +236.3% +204.3% 38% 38% +216.2%
≤30d 8 +236.3% +204.3% 38% 38% +216.2%
≤90d 8 +236.3% +204.3% 38% 38% +216.2%
all 8 +236.3% +204.3% 38% 38% +216.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +204.3% 38% +216.2%
10% +175.2% 38% +185.9%
15% +148.6% 38% +158.3%
20% +124.2% 38% +133.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +281% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +236% · $-wt +281% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$5 · ×9.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.58 per $1 lost it wins $5.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$119 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$17 +331%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records