Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x23c8…f293 sports 417 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$93,278 (-5%) realized −$93,033 · open −$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%160W / 256L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$4,652per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$15,856est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$12,377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$247,987
sports 46% −$218,173
crypto 0% +$5,865
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -51.7% -56.3% 19% 19% -72.6%
≤30d 62 -28.7% -35.5% 29% 27% -47.3%
≤90d 416 -3.0% -12.3% 38% 36% -7.8%
all 416 -3.0% -12.3% 38% 36% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 36% -7.8%
10% -20.7% 36% -16.6%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 35% -24.7%
20% -35.4% 34% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$5,846) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,779 vs −$4,145 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$12,377
Realized−$93,033
Unrealized−$245
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses160 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$15,856
Open positions1
Markets (closed)416 / 417
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$4,652
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $12,622 $12,377 −$245 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20,002 +$24,766 +124%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$20 +104%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,503 −$2,463 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,704 −$3,661 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 24 $13,368 −$13,368 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 22 $15,494 −$15,494 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15,493 −$15,493 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 22 $15,150 −$15,150 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $6 +$9 +159%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $127 +$505 +399%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +117%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$15 +149%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 +$3 +170%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $6 +$4 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $15,485 +$22,853 +148%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $3,405 −$3,405 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 20 $5,134 −$5,134 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 20 $3,955 −$3,955 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 20 $11,768 −$11,768 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15,394 −$15,394 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17,263 −$15,397 -89%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 20 $12,234 −$12,234 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 20 $16,620 −$16,615 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 20 $17,428 −$17,428 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $14,602 −$14,602 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $16,630 −$16,630 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,164 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $11,452 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 43¢ $4 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $4 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 43¢ $8 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $4 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 45¢ $4 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 45¢ $13 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 57¢ $5,591 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 57¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 57¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 57¢ $264 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 57¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 57¢ $11,175 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 46¢ $5 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 48¢ $5 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 47¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $2,251 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $14,423 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $17,897 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $23 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $267 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $44 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,377.39 · official $12,475.24 (match) · 3500 history records