Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x23ca…e26e world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$1
politics 22% $0
other 17% +$1
sports 10% $0
finance 7% −$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 5 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -10.8%
all 26 +38.3% +25.1% 46% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 4% -9.7%
10% +13.2% 4% -18.4%
15% +2.2% 4% -26.3%
20% -7.8% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage466d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $3 $0 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $32 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 26 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 24 $0 $0 +1000%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? Mar 25 $15 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $16 $0 -3%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? Mar 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $9 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $20 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $12 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $13 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 24d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL Yes $0 358d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL Yes $0 358d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL Yes $0 358d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY No 95¢ $1 365d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi BUY Yes $0 379d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? BUY No 99¢ $2 387d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 98¢ $1 401d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? BUY No 99¢ $2 415d
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum SELL No 99¢ $15 429d
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum BUY No 99¢ $15 430d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 99¢ $15 430d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 99¢ $15 430d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 99¢ $15 430d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 98¢ $15 430d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.74 · official $26.74 (match) · 66 history records