Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23cc…4f5a other 395 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,018 (+9%) realized +$1,048 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%116W / 187L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day90.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$164
14 days−$288
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$116
sports 38% +$688
crypto 15% +$34
politics 2% +$60
world 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +16.9% +5.8% 40% 22% +20.9%
≤30d 273 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 25% -5.3%
≤90d 303 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 27% -4.2%
all 303 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 27% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 27% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 20% -13.4%
15% -26.6% 17% -21.7%
20% -33.8% 15% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,214
Realized+$1,048
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses116 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions107
Markets (closed)303 / 395
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day90.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 107 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $104 $121 +$17 (+17%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? No 27¢ 20¢ $117 $88 −$29 (-25%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? No 80¢ 82¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 33¢ 83¢ $30 $75 +$45 (+151%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 55¢ 64¢ $55 $64 +$9 (+16%)
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No 70¢ 78¢ $56 $62 +$6 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+5%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 51¢ 55¢ $51 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 26¢ 41¢ $26 $41 +$15 (+58%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $31 $37 +$6 (+18%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+88%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 50¢ 26¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-47%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 19¢ 20¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 34¢ $15 $20 +$6 (+39%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Over 71¢ 80¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+12%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No 25¢ 10¢ $50 $20 −$29 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 33¢ 57¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+73%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 29¢ 32¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $18 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 48¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+30%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 +$9 +27%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$96 +2377%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $1 +$13 +894%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$59 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $39 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $59 +$41 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $22 +$18 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$49 +94%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,213.81 · official $1,213.91 (match) · 3500 history records