Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x23cd…a835 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,684 (+1%) realized +$2,684 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,673per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$517
sports 11% +$392
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.2% -16.9% 63% 52% -15.4%
≤30d 30 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 57% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 57% -9.6%
all 30 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 57% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 57% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 33% -18.2%
15% -29.0% 20% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$12,890) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,195 vs −$4,402 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,684
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage8d
Avg bet$8,673
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $457 +$42 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,427 +$649 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,510 −$453 -30%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $154 −$150 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $502 −$500 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5,348 +$686 +13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,330 +$1,007 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12,359 −$8,051 -65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10,694 +$1,689 +16%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7,903 +$2,817 +36%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $6,268 +$1,616 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,307 +$1,960 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $6,525 −$2,219 -34%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 22 $6,029 +$503 +8%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $2,813 +$1,286 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 22 $2,864 −$939 -33%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,460 +$2,215 +64%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,722 +$635 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7,383 −$4,622 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20,206 −$12,843 -64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18,255 +$1,968 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12,890 +$5,360 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $27,097 −$14,208 -52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6,012 +$290 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23,897 +$2,919 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19,595 +$4,297 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12,681 +$6,901 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16,173 +$2,326 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14,289 +$4,729 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 54¢ $499 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $4,076 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,057 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $457 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,427 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,510 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $502 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $6,034 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $5,348 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $5,337 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $4,330 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 30¢ $4,308 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $12,359 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10,694 31h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $34 43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $10,719 43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7,903 45h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 79¢ $6,268 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,266 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $4,307 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Raphael Collignon 54¢ $4,306 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 77¢ $2,417 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 81¢ $4,108 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo Ficovich SELL Keegan Smith 100¢ $6,532 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo Ficovich BUY Keegan Smith 92¢ $6,029 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $4,099 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli SELL Jack Pinnington Jones 50¢ $1,926 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Ethan Quinn 68¢ $2,813 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 73¢ $2,864 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.29 (match) · 72 history records