Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23ce…1332 other 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-69%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -25.1% -32.3% 22% 11% -77.8%
≤90d 9 -25.1% -32.3% 22% 11% -77.8%
all 9 -25.1% -32.3% 22% 11% -77.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 11% -77.8%
10% -38.7% 11% -80.0%
15% -44.7% 11% -81.9%
20% -50.1% 11% -83.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $15 −$9 -60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 +$9 +468%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 10d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 10d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 13d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 13d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records