Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23d1…214e
sports · 37 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$20 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage46d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$521
7 days−$378
14 days−$402
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 32¢ 44¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 28¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $128 −$90 -71%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$41 +104%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $94 −$66 -71%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $77 −$45 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 −$43 -43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 −$11 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $91 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $29 −$18 -64%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $68 −$19 -28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$22 -46%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $46 +$75 +162%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$28 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $28 +$36 +128%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 −$46 -45%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $59 +$66 +112%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $16 +$35 +216%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $28 −$24 -83%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 17 $51 +$105 +206%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $36 +$39 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $51 +$56 +110%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 13 $5 +$26 +509%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 13 $25 −$7 -28%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 12 $100 +$101 +101%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) May 11 $35 +$29 +82%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $100 −$64 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $33 17m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $5 27m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $20 32m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $56 52m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 37¢ $30 55m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 1¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 17¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 39¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $96 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 38¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 3¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 22¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 47¢ $36 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $81 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $40 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 48¢ $59 23h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 47¢ $51 27h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 10¢ $4 28h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 24¢ $25 28h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 13¢ $28 28h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 19¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 32¢ $26 28h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 37¢ $36 28h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $43 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 27¢ $56 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $13 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -21.1% -28.6% 31% 23% -34.7%
≤30d 28 -15.2% -23.3% 32% 25% -27.9%
≤90d 35 +11.2% +0.6% 40% 34% -14.8%
all 35 +11.2% +0.6% 40% 34% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 34% -14.8%
10% -9.0% 34% -23.0%
15% -17.8% 34% -30.4%
20% -25.8% 34% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.20 · official $55.20 (match) · 91 history records