Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x23d6…5e5e other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$656 (-23%) realized −$656 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$708per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$576
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.9% -15.7% 75% 75% -28.0%
≤30d 4 -6.9% -15.7% 75% 75% -28.0%
≤90d 4 -6.9% -15.7% 75% 75% -28.0%
all 4 -6.9% -15.7% 75% 75% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 75% -28.0%
10% -23.8% 50% -34.9%
15% -31.2% 0% -41.2%
20% -37.9% 0% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$974 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$656
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage3d
Avg bet$708
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $480 +$128 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $371 +$111 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $990 −$974 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $990 +$159 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $609 16m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $480 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $481 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $371 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $990 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,149 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $990 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records