Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x23d8…ff1a sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$10
politics 21% −$3
world 19% +$4
other 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 1 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 9 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 11% -8.7%
all 9 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 11% -8.7%
10% -24.8% 0% -17.4%
15% -32.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -38.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage81d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 18 $263 −$3 -1%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) May 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $29 +$4 +13%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) Apr 03 $213 +$7 +3%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $215 $0 +0%
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) Apr 02 $191 +$19 +10%
Spread: Lithuania (-2.5) Mar 30 $127 +$3 +3%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Mar 29 $195 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 1h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 10h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 17h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $128 17h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $263 18h
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2¢ $10 39d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2¢ $9 39d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 39d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 39d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 39d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 39d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 59d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 59d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 59d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 59d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 97¢ $19 76d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 97¢ $48 76d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 97¢ $48 76d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 97¢ $48 76d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 97¢ $48 76d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $215 76d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $117 76d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 76d
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) BUY EC Juventude 91¢ $191 78d
Spread: Lithuania (-2.5) BUY Georgia 97¢ $127 80d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $195 80d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $195 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records