Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x23d8…f6b9 weather 800 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,722 (+3%) realized +$3,597 · open +$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate81%641W / 151L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Fees−$402est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$803
14 days+$999
30 days+$1,653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$1,286
weather 37% +$1,463
politics 1% +$60
other 1% −$394
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.6% -15.5% 73% 62% -20.7%
≤30d 329 +1.4% -8.3% 80% 63% -6.8%
≤90d 792 +3.1% -6.7% 81% 60% -7.6%
all 792 +3.1% -6.7% 81% 60% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 60% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 30% -16.5%
15% -23.8% 13% -24.5%
20% -31.2% 7% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$117 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$2,762
Realized+$3,597
Unrealized+$125
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses641 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$402
Open positions8
Markets (closed)792 / 800
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $1,053 $1,094 +$41 (+4%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 86¢ 86¢ $860 $865 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 82¢ 100¢ $223 $272 +$48 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? No 77¢ 79¢ $242 $247 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 20? No 90¢ 92¢ $137 $141 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 19? No 82¢ 100¢ $82 $100 +$18 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 19? No 93¢ 100¢ $34 $36 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 83¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $110 +$29 +27%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $400 +$81 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $229 +$46 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $37 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $136 +$18 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $81 +$19 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $213 +$37 +17%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $538 −$536 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $440 +$60 +14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $314 −$312 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $471 +$135 +29%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $912 +$88 +10%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $238 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $320 −$320 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $201 +$237 +118%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $273 −$270 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $87 −$27 -31%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $304 +$96 +32%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $274 +$127 +46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $304 +$45 +15%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $224 −$224 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $338 +$62 +18%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $775 +$225 +29%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $353 +$47 +13%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $268 +$82 +31%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $262 −$261 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 +$11 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $364 +$36 +10%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $13 +$1 +6%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $237 +$111 +47%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $306 +$44 +14%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $247 +$103 +42%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $276 +$124 +45%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $148 +$52 +35%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $17 +$2 +12%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $402 +$98 +24%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $304 +$45 +15%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $460 +$40 +9%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $295 +$55 +18%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $302 +$48 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $93 −$62 -66%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $78 −$78 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $59 +$41 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $138 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $167 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $24 21h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $29 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $23 26h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $7 28h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $27 29h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $119 29h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $83 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $6 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 80¢ $145 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $57 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $198 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $229 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $79 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $47 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,761.84 · official $2,763.40 (match) · 3500 history records