Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x23de…c935 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$168 (+1%) realized +$169 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$579per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$166
14 days−$166
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$286
other 8% −$93
politics 5% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -56.2% -60.4% 0% 0% -60.4%
≤30d 3 -18.4% -26.2% 33% 33% -38.8%
≤90d 3 -18.4% -26.2% 33% 33% -38.8%
all 24 -24.4% -31.6% 58% 29% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 29% -8.9%
10% -38.2% 12% -17.6%
15% -44.2% 8% -25.6%
20% -49.6% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,027) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$129 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$169
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage142d
Avg bet$579
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $127 $126 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $295 −$166 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 08 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 06 $1,082 +$58 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 06 $976 +$106 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 06 $874 +$101 +12%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 06 $800 +$74 +9%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Feb 28 $694 −$70 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 28 $433 +$54 +12%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Feb 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 28 $416 +$43 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 28 $312 +$104 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 09 $1,200 +$68 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 09 $1,627 +$39 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 09 $1,579 +$44 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 09 $1,623 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 09 $1,027 +$562 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 09 $231 +$31 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 09 $452 −$448 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 09 $225 −$211 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $130 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $129 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $295 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $35 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1,139 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1,082 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $976 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $874 113d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $694 113d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $171 113d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 113d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $4 113d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $783 117d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 117d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $33 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $10 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $6 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $10 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $10 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $10 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $10 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $10 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $102 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $1 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $9 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $10 119d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 17¢ $10 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.96 · official $125.96 (match) · 142 history records