Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23df…5e36 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34 (+6%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$54
other 26% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 45% -14.1%
≤30d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 45% -14.1%
≤90d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 45% -14.1%
all 11 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -14.1%
10% -21.7% 45% -22.3%
15% -29.3% 45% -29.8%
20% -36.2% 36% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$27 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $52 −$16 -30%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 −$22 -41%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$22 +42%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $52 −$40 -76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $70 +$42 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $52 −$14 -27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$21 +50%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $42 −$19 -44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $42 +$27 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $42 +$23 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 50¢ $36 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $31 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $52 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $52 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $52 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $13 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $52 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $38 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $52 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $70 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $23 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $42 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $42 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $42 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records