Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x23df…640a sports 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,066 (+23%) realized +$10,201 · open −$135
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%155W / 139L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$437est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,833
7 days+$5,120
14 days+$10,500
30 days+$9,939
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$5,751
other 8% +$2,201
crypto 4% +$1,852
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 50% +13.7%
≤30d 294 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 45% +12.2%
≤90d 294 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 45% +12.2%
all 294 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 45% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 45% +12.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 41% +1.4%
15% -22.5% 35% -8.4%
20% -30.1% 28% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$73 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,565
Realized+$10,201
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses155 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$437
Open positions3
Markets (closed)294 / 297
History coverage22d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Christopher OConnell 98¢ 100¢ $982 $1,005 +$23 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 59¢ 100¢ $300 $509 +$209 (+69%)
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Clement Tabur 41¢ 74¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+82%)
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jay Clarke 63¢ $348 $0 −$348 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $885 +$805 +91%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $337 −$47 -14%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $284 −$280 -99%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $127 +$68 +53%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $545 +$205 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $405 +$641 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$11 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$2 +6%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$21 +365%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$14 +119%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $325 −$321 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $530 +$231 +44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $2 +$3 +172%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $154 +$99 +64%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $219 −$214 -98%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $273 −$13 -5%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $79 −$49 -62%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $147 −$144 -98%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $7 −$6 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1,124 +$549 +49%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 +$23 +116%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $501 +$16 +3%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $491 +$20 +4%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $427 +$73 +17%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $903 +$97 +11%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $32 +$21 +64%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $148 +$193 +130%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $4 +$6 +134%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $9 +$6 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $273 +$217 +79%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $27 −$17 -63%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $62 −$12 -19%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $0 $0 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $57 +$3 +6%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $32 +$8 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 24m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 24m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 38¢ $2 44m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 63¢ $349 45m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 41¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 30¢ $31 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Barbora Palicova 56¢ $284 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 34¢ $13 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 60¢ $3 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $289 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $289 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 81¢ $204 2h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 34¢ $103 2h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $20 3h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 63¢ $118 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 76¢ $4 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $7 3h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ $7 4h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 24¢ $3 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $545 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $18 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 38¢ $405 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $25 12h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 58¢ $294 14h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 50¢ $31 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $12 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 21¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,565.10 · official $1,565.10 (match) · 704 history records