Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x23e0…fc04 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-20%) realized −$74 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.5% -46.1% 40% 40% -36.9%
≤30d 5 -40.5% -46.1% 40% 40% -36.9%
≤90d 5 -40.5% -46.1% 40% 40% -36.9%
all 5 -40.5% -46.1% 40% 40% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 40% -36.9%
10% -51.3% 40% -42.9%
15% -56.0% 40% -48.4%
20% -60.3% 20% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$48 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $55 $50 −$5 (-9%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $44 +$20 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $83 +$43 +51%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $50 −$48 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $57 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $64 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $83 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.99 · official $96.99 (match) · 10 history records